Start of the 2026 Elections: AI Rules and Fiscal Pressure Raise Risk Premium

Crossing this scenario with Clareza Capital's editorial archive, especially the recurring analyses on the Dispute for 54 Senate seats and Fiscal Risk, it is clear that the market fears a mismatch between monetary and fiscal policy. From the perspective of credit and liquidity cycles, the massive injection of Electoral Fund resources acts as an artificial liquidity stimulus in the real economy. With the target Selic rate stationary at 14.00% p.a. — unchanged in seven- and thirty-day readings —, the Central Bank attempts to curb consumption and anchor inflation expectations, while the political machine injects billions into circulation, generating a counter-vector that could prolong the restrictive interest rate cycle.

Strict TSE regulation on digital advertising, which prohibits telemarketing and restricts the organic reach of paid influencers, imposes a structural shift in campaign spending. Without the possibility of free, unregulated viralization, parties will be forced to concentrate resources on official paid boosting. This movement generates atypical commercial demand in the regional technology and advertising sectors. However, in an environment where the cost of working capital is severely impacted by the Selic at 14.00% p.a., election service providers face operational challenges in financing their activities before receiving party funds, raising credit risk in these campaigns' supply chains.

For the next 30, 90, and 180 days, scenarios project sharp exchange rate volatility as voting intention polls begin to dictate market expectations. In the short term (30 days), litigation surrounding the use of AI in advertising is expected to dominate courts, keeping the risk premium high and the dollar fluctuating near R$ 5.22. In 90 days, the consolidation of candidates' economic speeches will test the sustainability of the future interest rate curve. If fiscal expansion proposals prevail, unanchored expectations could push the IPCA above the current 4.44% ceiling, forcing the Central Bank to maintain the Selic at 14.00% p.a. or even raise it.