Hormuz conflict reignites geopolitical risk and pressures Brazil's trade balance

Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, following attacks on two more cargo ships, have put global commodity markets on high alert, signaling a potential disruption to energy supply routes that directly threatens Brazilian inflationary stability. This event exacerbates existing logistical vulnerabilities, compounding a recent 12.2% decline in exports to the U.S. and injecting immediate volatility into local risk assets. In the domestic market, the commercial dollar has risen to R$ 5.19, a 1.58% increase over the last 7 days, fueling imported inflationary pressure that challenges the 4.44% 12-month IPCA target. As global liquidity shifts toward safe-haven assets, Brazilian equities face a forced repricing, with capital markets—already cautious regarding firms like Azul and Embraer—now pricing in an additional risk premium. For the next 180 days, analysts expect persistent commodity volatility and logistical cost stress, advising investors to prioritize capital preservation and avoid highly leveraged, import-dependent sectors.