Electric Sector Demands Seven Commitments from Candidates Amid Fiscal Warning

Fifteen Brazilian electric sector associations united to launch a strategic playbook targeting the first hundred days of the next presidential term, demanding seven core commitments and fifty structured regulatory proposals. This initiative comes at a particularly sensitive time for the national economy, marked by the commercial dollar trading at R$ 5.20, registering an upward variation of 1.95% over the last 7 days, while official 12-month accumulated inflation remains at 4.44% with a downward bias to 4.31% on a 30-day horizon. This corporate movement directly intersects with Clareza Capital's recent outlook, which has accumulated six consecutive negative-toned analyses under the Economic Policy desk, including recent fiscal warnings such as the honor of R$ 152 million in debt by the National Treasury and the elevated risk premium in the 2026 elections. The electric sector's urgency reflects a preparatory necessity within the credit and liquidity cycle, where the market demands regulatory predictability to mitigate cost shocks that could further pressure the IPCA and destabilize long-term corporate budget planning. Deepening the structural analysis, regulatory risk and legal certainty stand out as the main bottlenecks for attracting multibillion-dollar investments in energy infrastructure. With the Selic rate maintained at contractionary levels of 14.00% per year, the cost of capital to finance expansions in the energy matrix becomes prohibitive without solid return guarantees, raising the risk premium demanded by private financiers. Each guideline presented in the playbook seeks to shield the business environment against political interference, mapping systemic risks that could compromise the solvency of concessionaires and tariff affordability for the final consumer. Looking at the short-to-medium-term horizon, economic scenarios are drawn under strong vigilance. In 30 days, the market will monitor candidates' receptiveness to the agenda and potential exchange rate volatilities tied to the dollar at R$ 5.20. In 90 days, the political transition will begin pricing in the viability of the fifty technical proposals against the interest rate scenario of 14.00% p.a. Within 180 days, the alignment between the new government planning and fiscal targets will determine whether the energy sector can unlock new private capital inflows without overburdening the public budget. For the investor and the head of household, the practical recommendation requires redoubled caution in asset allocation and household budget planning. From the perspective of margin of safety and capital preservation inspired by great traditions of prudent investing, avoid allocations in regulated capital-intensive assets without first analyzing the financial robustness and indebtedness of companies. Protect your purchasing power by maintaining liquidity in fixed income tied to the 14.00% p.a. rate and diversify part of the portfolio into assets less vulnerable to tariff fluctuations and unforeseen fiscal shocks. In short, the electric sector's articulation is not merely a corporate plea, but a barometer of Brazilian macroeconomic stability in 2026. With pressured fiscal indicators and the exchange rate fluctuating around R$ 5.20, the next government's ability to absorb these guidelines will define the pace of the resumption of infrastructure investments. The attentive investor must cross-reference these variables.