Economy slows down with contraction in June and rising Selic rate

The Brazilian economic activity closed the second quarter with a visibly milder expansion pace, recording a punctual contraction in June that confirms the slowdown expected by the market after a more dynamic start to the year. This cooling in activity indicators brings a new dynamic to the debate on the country's sustained growth, requiring economic agents to have a much more cautious reading on the upcoming quarters and the real momentum of national production.

While the economy seeks to find its equilibrium point, the macroeconomic scenario remains pressured by fundamental indicators, starting with the target Selic rate set at 14.00% per year, a stable level that keeps the cost of credit high for companies and families. At the same time, the 12-month accumulated IPCA reaches 4.44%, showing a recent upward trajectory from 4.23% in the 7-day variation, but showing relief compared to the 4.64% recorded in the 30-day window. On the foreign exchange front, the commercial dollar is quoted at R$ 5.22, accumulating an increase of 2.12% in the 7-day variation (compared to R$ 5.11 in previous periods) and a 0.73% advance in the 30-day window, reflecting external uncertainties and pressures on the exchange rate.

This panorama of internal deceleration connects directly with the portal's recent editorial collection, which already accumulates multiple warning signs in the productive sector and consumption — such as the structural collapse of credit retail and the human impact of store closures, forming a predominantly negative sentiment panel with four caution notes against only one positive. From the perspective of structural macroeconomics, the Brazilian economy is now transitioning through a clear phase of deceleration and liquidity tightening, where the cost of money restricts the consumption momentum and forces a rigorous reassessment of corporate and domestic risk appetite.