Delivery under scrutiny: The economics of concentration and risks to the consumer's pocket

The app-based delivery market in Brazil has reached a maturity level requiring rigorous antitrust analysis, as noted by the Cade Department of Economic Studies. Market dominance by a few platforms creates structural barriers for new entrants. With the 12-month IPCA at 4.44% in July, pressure on food service costs remains high, impacting services inflation. Amid a commercial dollar rate of R$ 5.22—up 2.12% in seven days—delivery companies face margin pressure from imported technological costs and currency volatility. When market concentration is high, these costs are often passed to consumers without quality improvements, squeezing small merchants. We argue that platform value should stem from logistics optimization rather than artificial barriers. As platforms may raise 'take rates' to offset currency devaluation, regulatory risk is expected to increase, potentially forcing a shift from subsidized growth to efficiency-based retention models within 180 days. Investors are advised to monitor regulatory exposure and diversify their portfolios.