6x1 Work Schedule Amendment: The inflationary risk the market is beginning to price in

The political momentum behind the constitutional amendment (PEC) to reduce the workweek in the Senate has heightened risk aversion in the domestic market, adding pressure to corporate operating costs. With the commercial dollar at R$ 5.22, up 2.12% in seven days, investors are wary of a supply shock in labor-intensive sectors. The legislative debate focuses on fixed hiring costs while ignoring the impact on marginal productivity, a key driver of economic growth. Given the 12-month IPCA inflation at 4.44%, any forced increase in payroll without productivity gains will likely be passed on to consumer prices. Analysts warn that for companies in retail and services, the PEC could lead to severe margin compression, potentially forcing the Central Bank to maintain restrictive interest rates if inflation remains above target. Investors are advised to prioritize companies with high pricing power and low labor dependency to mitigate volatility in the coming 90 to 180 days.