New EU Sanctions Against Russia: The Invisible Impact on Exchange Rates and Global Risk

The European Union is preparing a new package of sanctions against Russia, aiming to increase the number of sanctioned entities by one-third by the end of 2026, signaling a persistent hardening of the bloc's foreign policy. This occurs amid fragile global supply chains, where trade restrictions catalyze volatility in international financial markets, directly affecting emerging countries like Brazil. In Brazil, the commercial dollar, at R$ 5.2236, shows a 2.12% upward trend over the last 7 days and a 0.73% rise over the last 30 days, reflecting a flight-to-quality. This pressure on the local currency coincides with a 4.44% 12-month accumulated inflation. Clareza Capital notes this is the fourth macroeconomic negative alert in recent days. Applying Ray Dalio's credit and liquidity cycle framework, we observe a contraction in risk appetite, draining liquidity from emerging markets to safe-haven assets. With the Selic rate at 14.00% per year, the risk of imported inflation via energy and agricultural Commodities remains a critical monitoring factor. Following Benjamin Graham's principles of value and margin of safety, investors are advised to prioritize capital protection, diversify into dollar-denominated assets, and maintain liquidity reserves.