2026 Elections: Zema stirs markets with fiscal focus and institutional tension

The start of the presidential race in Minas Gerais brought proposals for fiscal restructuring and legal certainty to the national economic debate, creating a tense political environment and immediate repercussions on risk assets. The current scenario requires heightened attention, as the commercial dollar closed at R$ 5.2236, recording a 2.12% increase over a 7-day window and accumulating a 0.73% gain over a 30-day horizon. This exchange rate volatility reflects investor nervousness in the face of institutional clashes and proposed reversals in foreign policy and public accounts. This political episode adds to a challenging economic context where the 12-month accumulated IPCA stands at 4.44%, having shown a 4.31% retraction in the 30-day comparison, but with recent volatility putting pressure on families' purchasing power. The financial market is closely watching how the discourse of austerity and the fight against public debt collide with the reality of record government tax collection. Meanwhile, the Selic rate remains parked at 14.00% per year, without expressive variations in the 7-day or 30-day windows, keeping credit restricted and raising the cost of capital for companies and state governments. Cross-referencing this movement with the portal's editorial archives, it is noted that this is the seventh consecutive news piece with a negative bias regarding cost pressures, exchange rates, and institutional volatility in the quarter. From the macro-structural perspective of liquidity cycles, the promise of drastic changes in penal laws and the management of reserves and international relations directly impacts foreign capital confidence, which weighs country risk before allocating productive resources. Regulatory and political uncertainty acts as a handbrake on long-term investments, raising the risk premium demanded by the domestic and international market. Deepening the analysis of the causes, the clash between the productive sector and the state apparatus highlights the country's fiscal fragility, where household debt contrasts with Brasília's appetite for revenue. The main risk lies in the deterioration of inflationary expectations should institutional instability overflow into the exchange rate, further driving up the cost of imported inputs and fuels. Each assertive candidate statement on spending control and the review of state contracts generates shock waves in the stock market and interest rate futures contracts, penalizing Brazilian variable income assets and raising fund managers' caution. For the 30-day horizon, pronounced volatility is projected in the exchange market and fluctuations in IDIs, driven by the tone of the electoral campaign and the release of new voting intention polls. In the 90-day term, the focus of economic agents should shift toward the sustainability of the fiscal target and Congress's reaction to structural reform proposals presented by candidates. In a 180-day horizon, the market will price more definitively the viability of campaign promises against the rigidity of the public budget and official inflation behavior. Faced with this scenario of uncertainties, the guidance for investors and heads of households is based on the Tradition of Value and the search for a margin of safety: protect your wealth by diversifying your portfolio with dollarized assets and post-fixed or inflation-indexed fixed income, avoiding leverage.