The end of the cheap oil era: why global demand has stagnated

The stagnation of oil prices is not a supply phenomenon, but a concerning signal of structural change in global consumption. While the market often blames geopolitics or OPEC decisions, the reality is that the global economy is losing its appetite for fossil fuels in strategic sectors. This movement, occurring against a backdrop of the commercial dollar reaching R$ 5.22—a 2.12% appreciation over the last 7 days—suggests that oil is no longer the growth engine we once knew, turning the commodity into an increasingly volatile asset sensitive to technological shifts. With the 12-month IPCA at 4.44% and a consumer price index drop of 4.31% over the last 30 days, it is clear that purchasing power is shifting, leaving the energy sector at the margins. Investors should be wary; if structural demand is falling, the intrinsic value of energy companies depends on their transition capacity, not just past dividends. The asymmetric risk is high, as the market prices oil expecting 2022 growth levels while data shows a lateralized trend, potentially leading to permanent capital losses for those ignoring this shift in the consumption pyramid.