Rising Dollar and Oil Discoveries: A Cocktail of Fiscal and Inflationary Risks

This picture aligns with a series of recent concerns in our editorial archive. News about Lira's assets, which tripled and tests institutional stability, coupled with threats to political figures like Flávio Bolsonaro, reinforce a sentiment of political instability that often translates into exchange rate volatility. The oil discovery, in turn, evokes fiscal debates previously raised in other articles, such as the one that addressed the fiscal fragility exposed by the turnaround at Maracanã. The asymmetric risk school warns us about the current moment: the market may be pricing in excessive pessimism in some sectors, but the combination of political and macroeconomic factors creates concrete risks that cannot be ignored, making risk-return asymmetry a crucial point for analysis.

The main cause of the current pressure on the dollar lies in domestic political uncertainty, which scares away foreign capital and increases demand for the American currency as a safe haven. The discovery of new oil reserves, while theoretically promising, could become a fiscal burden if not managed with discipline, especially considering that the 12-month IPCA is already at 4.44% and shows signs of acceleration in short periods. The 7-day upward trend in the IPCA to 4.23% is a warning that inflation may pressure again, eroding purchasing power and forcing the Central Bank to maintain a more cautious stance regarding monetary policy. This dynamic reinforces the need to protect capital against abrupt fluctuations.

For the next 30 days, there is a high probability that the dollar will remain volatile, fluctuating around R$ 5.20 to R$ 5.35, pressured by political news and global risk aversion. In 90 days, should political tensions worsen and inflation show resilience, the dollar could test higher levels.