Elections 2026: The Electoral Race in Rondônia and Fiscal Risk for the North

Clareza Capital's editorial collection has consistently pointed to a negative dynamic surrounding the 2026 elections, with multiple articles warning about the fiscal risk associated with regional electoral disputes. The race in Rondônia is no exception, bringing to light concerns about the sustainability of campaign promises in the face of budgetary reality. From a value tradition perspective, it is fundamental for voters to evaluate not only short-term proposals but also candidates' ability to manage public resources efficiently and responsibly, ensuring the preservation of fiscal capital for future generations, avoiding impulsive spending that could compromise long-term economic stability.

In-depth analysis reveals that the electoral dispute in Rondônia, as well as in other Northern states, as evidenced by previous articles on Tocantins, could exacerbate pre-existing fiscal fragilities. A candidate's increase of 7.4 billion in assets, although a specific case, signals the importance of investigating the origin of resources and the potential impact on the fairness of the dispute and public management. The promise of public investments without a clear and sustainable financing plan can lead to increasing indebtedness, impacting the state's credit rating and, consequently, access to credit and the cost of capital for the local productive sector. The trend of the real's depreciation against the dollar, observed over the last 30 days with a rise of 0.73%, could also make the rollover of foreign debt more expensive, should the state have liabilities in this modality.

Over a 30 to 180-day horizon, the scenario for Rondônia and similar states in the Northern region remains under the aegis of fiscal caution. The maintenance of the Selic rate at 14.00% p.a. suggests that the cost of raising funds for the state will remain high.