Speculation about Trump's third term in the US shakes foreign exchange markets

The circulation of images on social media suggesting the feasibility of a third presidential term in the United States in 2028 directly challenges the constitutional limits of the world's largest economy, generating political noise that immediately reverberates across international markets and the Brazilian exchange rate. This type of populist rhetoric and institutional extrapolation injects volatility into risk assets, reminding investors that legal stability and the rules of the democratic game are fundamental pillars for pricing any long-term financial asset. In the current foreign exchange scenario, the Brazilian commercial dollar is trading at R$ 5.22, accumulating a positive upward variation of 2.12% over a 7-day horizon—moving from a benchmark of approximately R$ 5.11—in addition to recording a 0.73% advance over the 30-day period. This pressure on the US currency occurs in a macroeconomic environment where official inflation measured by the IPCA accumulates a 4.44% increase over 12 months, demonstrating resilience in domestic prices as import costs rise with the external appreciation of the dollar. This discussion regarding disruptions in American political rules adds to a recent history of international and domestic instability that directly impacts the flow of foreign capital to emerging markets like Brazil. In our recent editorial archive, this is the fifth negative mention or geopolitical-economic friction this week, aligning with episodes such as the rising cost of travel and exchange rate pressures resulting from visa revocations and tariff impasses in Colombia. From the perspective of credit and liquidity cycles, exogenous institutional shocks alter global risk appetite, forcing an abrupt reallocation of institutional portfolios and raising the premium required to maintain positions in Latin American currencies.