Crisis in the Strait of Hormuz puts pressure on global energy and inflation

The deadlock in oil trade in the Strait of Hormuz drove international barrel prices up by $1 in the last session, exposing the fragility of global energy supply chains. This supply shock directly hits the foreign consumer, reflected in the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States reaching $4.08, accumulating an impressive 29% jump over a twelve-month interval. While Iranian authorities maintain a defiant tone and the geopolitical scenario remains unpredictable, secondary impacts are beginning to spill over into emerging economies, pressuring the cost of living and destabilizing global macroeconomic projections. In the exchange rate and domestic price landscape, the commercial dollar operating at R$ 5.2236 — with a positive variation of 2.12% in the 7-day window and 0.73% in 30 days — acts as an immediate amplifier of any international commodity volatility. Meanwhile, the 12-month accumulated IPCA at 4.44% — showing a slight compression from 4.31% over the 30-day horizon but a subtle rise of 4.23% in the seven-day weekly variation — demonstrates that the Brazilian Central Bank is navigating narrow margins to contain imported inflationary pressures. The Selic rate set at 14.00% per year, unchanged in the 7 and 30-day windows, remains the main instrument for liquidity containment, although its effectiveness against external geopolitical shocks is structurally limited. This geopolitical escalation does not occur in isolation on the portal's recent news panel, marking the sixth consecutive incidence of analyses with a negative bias on transition costs, energy sovereignty, and exchange rate pressures, as seen in the recent discussion on border security in Morocco which pressures global costs. From the perspective of structural macroeconomics of cycles and liquidity, the global market is transitioning from a moment of disorderly expansion to a cycle of restrictive capital tightening, where supply bottlenecks in strategic routes drain risk appetite and make asset conversion more expensive. From an analytical point of view, the current energy shock highlights that fuel and derivative inflation is not a passing phenomenon, but a symptom of deep imbalances in the planet's supply matrix. With the maritime blockade limiting the flow of one-fifth of the world's oil, logistical costs are operating at alarming levels, eroding global purchasing power and demanding severe adjustments in industrial production chains and cargo transport. For the 30-day horizon, the probability is high that oil futures contracts will maintain extreme volatility tied to any sign of military conflict. In 90 days, the scenario points to a consolidation of fuel prices at high levels, requiring a generalized pass-through to domestic freight. Meanwhile, in the 180-day horizon, the average probability is partial accommodation should new alternative energy flow routes be made viable by global powers. To protect wealth in the face of this adverse scenario, the investor must adopt the discipline of the margin of safety, avoiding allocations in high-risk assets without proper inflationary protection. The first practical recommendation is to diversify the portfolio with inflation-indexed assets and controlled currency exposure to mitigate the effect of the dollar's rise to R$ 5.22. The second essential action consists