The end of tech disinflation: How AI costs challenge price control

The era of the technology sector acting as a natural brake on global inflation appears to have ended, replaced by a paradigm where massive AI integration demands unprecedented capital expenditures (CAPEX). Historically, the deflation of electronics and communication components stabilized consumer price indices, but current data signals a structural shift: the infrastructure required for generative AI is forcing a repricing of production costs and digital services, pressuring the Federal Reserve to maintain heightened vigilance. In Brazil, this phenomenon faces a challenging environment, with 12-month accumulated IPCA at 4.44% (as of 07/01/2026). Despite a slight 30-day decline from 4.64%, persistent exchange rate pressure—with the commercial dollar at R$ 5.22, up 2.12% in 7 days—is driving up the cost of imported tech inputs, making digitization more expensive for local firms. Value investing analysis suggests that investors are ignoring the risk of permanent capital loss by paying high multiples for companies facing compressed margins due to cloud and energy infrastructure costs. With the Selic rate at 14% p.a., the inability to pass these costs to consumers may lead to a contraction in dividends and net profits. Over the next 90 to 180 days, expect increased volatility in tech stocks as quarterly earnings begin to reflect this margin erosion.