Geopolitics in the Strait of Hormuz: The shock threatening oil prices

The declaration of intent regarding the jurisdiction of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed geopolitical tensions to a critical level, putting at direct risk the flow of supplies that accounts for approximately 20% of global oil consumption. For Brazilian investors, this is not merely an international headline, but a pressure vector on domestic assets, especially as the commercial dollar has risen 2.12% in the last 7 days to R$ 5.2236. The possibility of military escalation acts as a volatility catalyst for Commodities, directly impacting the valuation of exporting firms and sovereign risk perception. Markets remain cautious, evidenced by the recent 9-session losing streak on the Ibovespa. With the dollar up 0.73% in the last 30 days, local investors face the combined effect of devalued assets and rising import costs. Given the asymmetric risk, the market continues to underestimate the potential for a total breakdown in Gulf supply chains, where the downside of an open conflict is potentially catastrophic for companies dependent on imported inputs. This inflationary pressure complicates the control of the IPCA, currently at 4.44% in 12 months. Our outlook suggests that for the next 180 days, currency volatility will likely remain above R$ 5.20, with the Brazilian stock market heavily tied to global risk sentiment and corporate ability to pass on rising logistics costs.