Oil at $90: The real impact of the Strait of Hormuz escalation on your wallet

The presidential statement on the control of the Strait of Hormuz is more than geopolitical rhetoric; it is a watershed moment for global energy commodity pricing, with Brent firmly trading at $90 per barrel. For Brazilian investors, this shift signals cross-border cost pressures, exacerbating volatility in a scenario where the commercial dollar has already climbed 2.12% in the last 7 days, quoted at R$ 5.2236, reflecting domestic risk aversion. Historically, the 20% of global oil flowing through this strategic passage makes any closure threat an immediate trigger for logistics cost inflation. With the 12-month IPCA at 4.44% already feeling supply chain pressure, the crisis could force an upward revision of pump prices. The 30-day dollar trend, up 0.73%, indicates that the Brazilian market is pricing in an increasing risk premium against external shocks, complicating the Central Bank's task in anchoring inflation expectations. Foreign capital flight, evidenced by the 3.23% drop in the Ibovespa last week, reinforces a negative market sentiment. As global financial conditions tighten, investors are seeking refuge in dollar-denominated assets, prioritizing capital preservation over long-term fundamentals. Projections suggest that if the conflict persists, inflationary pass-through to the Brazilian basic consumption basket will be inevitable within 90 days, potentially pushing the IPCA above the 4.44% target.