Electoral Deepfakes: The Economic Impact of Disinformation on Democracy

Crossing this outlook with Clareza Capital's archive, this marks the sixth consecutive negative-toned reading of the week, directly dialoguing with the recent analysis on tariff reciprocity with the US that called foreign trade into question. From the perspective of Ray Dalio's credit and liquidity cycle school, mass disinformation acts as an exogenous shock that restricts the liquidity of productive capital, as institutional investors tend to pull back investments when the regulatory and political horizon becomes opaque. Risk appetite drops drastically, redirecting financial flows to maximum-security assets and stalling the expansion of new businesses in the country.

Deepening the structural risks, digital manipulation through deepfakes erodes the pillars of corporate governance and legal certainty, fundamental elements for attracting long-term foreign investments. Concrete data from the foreign exchange market demonstrate that the fluctuation of the American currency is directly linked to the degree of political and informational uncertainty the country projects for the coming quarters. The temporary inability of electoral courts, such as the TSE, to establish swift and consensual punishment rules creates a regulatory vacuum that is immediately priced in by major global financial market players.

Looking toward the 30-, 90-, and 180-day horizons, the trend points to a tightening of regulatory scrutiny over big tech companies, with probable impacts on the stock prices of media and telecommunications firms operating in Brazil. In 30 days, greater exchange rate volatility is expected if new deepfakes controversies gain traction in upper courts; in 90 days, digital platforms' adaptation to legal requirements could raise operating costs for the tech sector; and in 180 days, the market will have already priced in the winners.