Political investigations and regulatory risk pressure the institutional environment

This analysis does not arise in a vacuum; it represents the seventh consecutive negative-toned manifestation cataloged in the editorial archives of the Clareza Capital portal this week, joining records such as Operation Sem Refino and recent institutional clashes that shake regulatory risk. Through the lens of credit and liquidity cycles, inspired by the macrostructure of major economic cycles, the repetition of political-judicial friction compresses institutional investors' risk appetite, raising the premium required to finance corporate and sovereign debt. Foreign capital flow tends to retract when the institutional risk premium rises, slowing the formation of new long-term investments and imposing a more cautious pace on the expansion of bank and market credit.

The main risk embedded in this dynamic lies in the gradual deterioration of business confidence, a determining factor for the infrastructure and industrial production investment cycle. Each new investigation front or clash between the Powers adds volatility to local assets, making the cost of raising capital more expensive for companies exposed to the domestic market and reducing the predictability of future cash flows. With the Selic rate parked at 14.00% per year, the opportunity cost of liquidity is already severe; when added to the regulatory risk derived from institutional crises, the corporate investor starts demanding much tighter operational safety margins before disbursing productive capital in the country.

Looking at the short- to medium-term horizon, exchange rate volatility is projected to be maintained over the next 30 days, with the dollar fluctuating in the current range and testing resistance if new political noises reach Brasília's radar. Over a 90-day horizon, the persistence of investigations and the fiscal clash in Congress tend to consolidate a higher credit spread.