Geopolitics under tension: The real impact of US threats to Iran on your assets

The recent rhetoric escalation from the United States, promising severe economic consequences for any nation aiding Iran, signals a dangerous hardening in the global geopolitical landscape. This move triggers market volatility, particularly as the commercial dollar has risen 1.47% over the last 7 days, currently at R$ 5.1714. For Brazilian investors, this matters because additional sanctions or blocked trade routes directly pressure supply chains and critical commodity prices, affecting the risk perception of emerging markets. While the 12-month IPCA stands at 4.44%—down from 4.64% thirty days ago—the external environment dictates exchange rate trends. The current 'flight to quality' penalizes Brazilian assets as capital shifts toward safe havens like US Treasuries. Given the global liquidity contraction, the threat of sanctions forces investors to reduce positions in peripheral markets. With the dollar above R$ 5.17, any trade disruption could trigger imported inflation, undermining domestic price control efforts. Investors are advised to apply a 'Margin of Safety' approach: maintain dollarized or low-risk assets, ensure liquidity, and avoid excessive leverage during this period of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.