US-Iran economic war: how geopolitics pressures exchange rates and your investments

The escalation of a new 'economic war' between the US and Iran, marked by unprecedented sanctions, adds volatility to global markets and the Brazilian economy. With the commercial dollar rising 1.47% over the last 7 days to R$ 5.1714, geopolitical tension acts as a catalyst for capital flight toward safe-haven assets, pressuring the real and increasing the cost of essential imports. Brazil faces a structural challenge: importing inflation via exchange rates, with the 12-month IPCA at 4.44%. The market is now pricing in a new geopolitical risk premium, which increases protection costs for local investors. In a cycle of global liquidity exhaustion, the strategy of using sanctions frequently results in market inefficiencies. Given the Selic rate at 14.00% p.a., persistent imported inflationary pressure may force the Central Bank to maintain high interest rates, sacrificing growth. Over the next 90 to 180 days, volatility is expected to remain high, and investors are advised to rebalance portfolios, reducing exposure to exchange rate shocks and maintaining liquidity.