Corporate credit grows 9.2% despite Selic at 14.00% and alarms the market

This dynamics of debt under pressure reflects the third consecutive negative news about corporate financial stress published in our editorial archive this week, echoing the tone of alarm already seen in recent analyses on financial discipline and global volatility. From the perspective of structural macroeconomics, the current cycle of restricted liquidity forces companies to navigate turbulent waters where credit is no longer a growth lever, but rather a mere emergency painkiller. Rigidity in credit granting by banks, intensified by the jump in the default rate of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises to 5.71%, seals a scenario where capital becomes scarce precisely for those who most need breathing room to cross the valley of low economic activity.

The structural causes of this phenomenon lie in the gradual erosion of cash reserves accumulated during previous periods, pushing business owners into a cycle of perpetual refinancing. The systemic risk lies in the fact that rising debt at double-digit rates, with the dollar pressuring import costs, creates a cascading effect of potential insolvency that could spill over into the supply chain and domestic consumption. When credit stops financing long-term investment and starts plugging cash holes, the real economy enters a stage of latent stagnation, hindering the sustained recovery of employment and gross fixed capital formation in the coming quarters.

Looking at the 30-, 90-, and 180-day time horizons, the short-term scenario (30 days) points to even more draconian selectivity by financial institutions, with high spreads and mass rejection of vulnerable registries. In the medium term (90 days), a forced accommodation of corporate indebtedness is projected as insolvent companies face stricter credit limits.