High long-term Treasury yields challenge the Stock Exchange and the cost of credit

The major question emerging for the investment ecosystem is the direct impact on the attractiveness of variable income, especially when capital-intensive companies need to roll over debts at burdensome rates. Inflation measured by the IPCA accumulated over 12 months at 4.44% — showing a slight rise from 4.23% in the 7-day variation and a drop from 4.31% in the 30-day reading — demonstrates that long-term de-anchoring continues to pressure the yield curve, making the cost of private capital raising prohibitive for many productive sectors.

For the next 30 days, heightened volatility in the pricing of risk assets is projected, with DIs reacting to every fiscal signal issued by Brasília; in 90 days, the focus will shift to public debt sustainability and the impacts on the balance sheets of Ibovespa companies; whereas in the 180-day horizon, the reconfiguration of the long curve will depend on the effectiveness of structural spending control measures. The market will continue to demand generous premiums to absorb the primary issuance of bonds, maintaining pressure on the multiples of the corporate sector.

Given this challenging scenario, the best guideline for individual retail investors is the adoption of rigorous long-term discipline, prioritizing low costs, efficient diversification, and periodic portfolio rebalancing without trying to guess the market bottom. According to the indexing and efficiency school, the focus should fall on the continuous process of accumulating value-generating assets, shielding the portfolio against cyclical fluctuations and taking advantage of price mismatches generated by temporary risk aversion.