Chamber in 2026: 80% Seek Re-election Amid 14% Interest Rates and Fiscal Tightening

The decision of 79.92% of federal deputies to seek re-election in 2026 signals a move to preserve political capital within a highly restrictive economic landscape. With the Selic rate set at 14.00% per annum, the cost of public debt has become the central axis of the electoral debate, forcing lawmakers to balance spending proposals with the necessity of fiscal solvency. High concentrations of re-election bids, particularly in parties like the PL and PT, suggest a trend toward maintaining the status quo, potentially limiting the renewal needed for deep structural reforms. The macroeconomic environment remains challenging, with the commercial dollar trading at R$ 5.2043, up 2.23% over the last week. This exchange rate movement, combined with a 12-month IPCA of 4.44%, creates persistent inflationary pressure affecting household consumption and corporate funding costs. Analysis from Clareza Capital indicates a negative correlation between legislative paralysis and equity market volatility, suggesting that when politicians prioritize office retention over reducing the 'Custo Brasil', the margin of safety for long-term investments decreases. With 410 parliamentarians focused on retaining their seats, the probability of passing unpopular but necessary fiscal measures remains low, fostering a 'crowding out' effect where capital favors the safety of Selic-indexed public bonds over productive expansion.