US Supreme Court and the impact on elections: what investors need to monitor

For investors, analyzing value and the margin of safety has never been more urgent. Volatility generated by executive actions and judicial challenges creates price distortions that can be interpreted as either opportunities or traps. When the Supreme Court maintains the status quo, it prevents the immediate collapse of confidence but does not eliminate tail risk—that rare and extreme event that can destabilize diversified portfolios. With the dollar showing a 0.22% decline over the last 30 days, investors who ignore the correlation between US politics and the cost of real assets in Brazil will be operating without the necessary protection in their portfolios.

Systemic risks are taking shape as we approach the November election. Persistence in litigation over the voting system could affect the risk appetite of institutional investors, resulting in a flight to the safety of US Treasuries, which consequently exerts upward pressure on the dollar against the real. The accumulated inflation figure of 4.44%, although undergoing a monthly disinflation process (falling from 4.64% to 4.44% in 30 days), keeps the Central Bank in a defensive stance, limiting room for monetary policy maneuvers that could stimulate the domestic economy in the face of an external shock.

Projecting the scenario for the next 180 days, the probability of a higher volatility environment is high. In 30 days, we expect accommodation in risk asset prices, provided no new judicial battles emerge. In 90 days, the proximity of the election should increase market sensitivity to any statements on tariffs or trade policies, directly impacting the commercial dollar. Over a 180-day horizon, focus will shift to the government transition and fiscal sustainability, where investors must maintain a vigilant posture, avoiding excessive allocations in assets that depend...