Investigation into parliamentary funds: the invisible risk to legal certainty

The authorization for the Federal Police to use data from related operations in investigations regarding the use of parliamentary amendments to fund audiovisual productions marks a new chapter in the weakening of institutional predictability. In an ecosystem where public resource allocation demands transparency, doubts over the final destination of legislative funds increase the risk premium demanded by the market. This fact is significant as it signals continued friction between government branches, historically a disincentive to long-term private investment in Brazil. The current macroeconomic scenario reflects this tension, with the commercial dollar trading at R$ 5.1512, showing a 7-day change of -0.67% and a 30-day change of -0.22%. While the exchange rate shows slight stabilization, the 12-month IPCA at 4.44% keeps the cost of living under pressure, forcing the Central Bank to maintain the Selic rate at 14.00% per annum. The stagnation of the Selic, with no change in the last 30 days, reflects the need for anchoring in an environment where fiscal risk and political uncertainty preclude monetary easing, penalizing productive credit. Applying Ray Dalio’s credit cycle framework, we are in a tightening phase where liquidity is scarce and the governance risk premium becomes prohibitive. Investors are advised to prioritize a margin of safety, avoid speculative sectors dependent on subsidies, and maintain a diversified portfolio.