Infrastructure at 4% of GDP: Fiscal promise clashes with Selic at 14%

The proposal to direct all state savings toward infrastructure, raising sector investments to the ambitious mark of 4% of GDP, places the debate on public spending efficiency back at the center of the national economic agenda. This promise gains traction at a time when the financial market and productive sectors closely monitor fiscal rigidity and the logistical bottlenecks that drive up domestic production costs. For the expansion of contributions to move from rhetoric to operational traction, the country must address legal certainty and untangle historical regulatory knots that have long hindered the entry of long-term private capital into major engineering and urban mobility projects. In this scenario, economic policy operates under severe monetary restriction, evidenced by the Selic rate established at 14.00% per year, a level unchanged over the 7-day window and stable compared to the 14% observed 30 days ago. This elevated benchmark rate drastically increases corporate credit and the financing of structural projects, imposing a severe opportunity cost on the National Treasury and concession companies. Simultaneously, the exchange rate moves in the range of R$ 5.2043 per dollar, registering a 2.23% increase over the 7-day horizon compared to the quote of R$ 5.091 at the beginning of the period, reflecting external volatility and risk premiums demanded by international investors when pricing Brazilian assets.