Poll in Paraíba and the fiscal radar: how regional politics moves assets

The state electoral race is gaining traction and highlighting institutional reflexes in the markets, with a recent survey pointing to Lula with 59% against 32% for Flávio in a runoff scenario in Paraíba, showing how the regional political board anticipates investors' risk appetite. In foreign exchange, the commercial Dollar is traded at R$ 5.1625, accumulating a slight negative variation of 0.03% in the 7-day window and a 0.46% drop compared to 30 days ago against levels of R$ 5.186, showing that foreign investors maintain tactical resilience even in the face of localized institutional noise. This early polarization scenario adds to the environment of controlled inflation and high interest rates, reflected by the 12-month accumulated IPCA at 4.44%, which shows a marginal rise of 4.23% compared to previous weeks' readings but remains contained compared to the 4.64% recorded thirty days ago. Simultaneously, the Selic rate at 14.00% per year, stable in both the 7-day and 30-day horizons, dictates the sovereign opportunity cost and imposes a brake on corporate leverage, demanding redoubled caution from economic agents in pricing local assets and corporate debt securities. Crossing this outlook with the portal's editorial archive, it is noted that this is the seventh consecutive negative insertion in the Economic Policy section of the week, echoing previous analyses on the cost of political distraction and how electoral noise diverts focus from structural fiscal reforms. From a structural macro perspective, credit and liquidity cycles are directly impacted by these political frictions, as regulatory uncertainty raises the risk premium demanded by global financiers and compresses productive capital flow to the real economy. Deepening the analysis, the main risk lies in budgetary rigidity aggravated by populist speeches that ignore the primary result target, pressuring the future interest rate curve regardless of the current Selic level of 14.00% p.a. With the Dollar operating in the R$ 5.16 range, any fiscal misalignment could break the current exchange rate support, turning political volatility into inflationary pass-through and increasing the rollover cost of public and private debt over the coming quarters. For the 30, 90, and 180-day horizons, increasing volatility is projected in domestic variable income assets, with the capital market fluctuating according to new polls and fiscal nods from the Planalto. In the ultra-short term of 30 days, the trend is price accommodation with the exchange rate testing the R$ 5.15 floor; in the 90 to 180-day horizon, the focus will inevitably shift to public debt sustainability, with the IPCA hovering around 4.44% and exerting continuous pressure on families' purchasing power. Concluding with practical guidance supported by the tradition of value and margin of safety, retail investors should avoid speculation based on uncertain electoral scenarios, prioritizing allocation in defensive assets indexed to inflation or post-fixed tied to the 14.00% rate. Build a liquidity cushion equivalent to six months of expenses in low-risk fixed income and view political volatility not as a trigger for risky bets, but as an opportunity to accumulate assets of solid companies only when there is a significant discount on their intrinsic value.