Zanin Denies Appeal and Reinforces Institutional Instability in Alagoas

The Supreme Federal Court's decision to reject the appeal of former deputy Paulão to reverse the loss of his mandate due to vote redistribution in Alagoas highlights the fragility in the predictability of legislative seat compositions, marking the seventh consecutive negative news item in our archive focused on legal certainty and regulatory risk. With the exchange rate trading around R$ 5.2043 and registering a 2.23% increase over the 7-day window, institutional volatility in the superior courts directly reverberates on domestic business confidence regarding the stability of the rules of the game.

This episode adds to a recent history of friction and interventions among the Three Powers that undermine the national business environment, corroborated by the advance of the commercial dollar, which accumulates a 0.06% gain over the last 30 days. The repetition of judicial contests over mandates generates a cascade effect of regulatory uncertainty, creating a scenario where medium and long-term planning for corporate investments is held hostage by last-minute monocratic decisions.

Crossing this event with previous analyses from the portal, a clear repetition of events unfavorable to institutional predictability is noted, aligning with recent debates on magistrate removals and severe regulatory sanctions. From the perspective of structural macroeconomics of credit and liquidity cycles, political and legal instability raises the risk premium demanded by foreign capital, increasing the cost of capital raising for the Brazilian productive sector.