The Electoral Calendar and the Market: How Political Volatility Reacts to Data

The Superior Electoral Court's authorization of new polls in 15 states and the Federal District marks a period of heightened sensitivity for domestic assets. With the commercial Dollar trading at R$ 5.1625, down 0.46% over the last 30 days, the market is pricing political noise as an operational risk variable. While new polling data does not alter macroeconomic fundamentals, it adds uncertainty that often deters foreign capital, especially as the 12-month IPCA at 4.44% continues to pressure household purchasing power. Clareza Capital’s historical data shows that intense polling cycles often coincide with political instability, reinforcing the need for caution. With the Selic rate at 14.00% per annum, liquidity is tightening as institutional investors seek safer assets, waiting for clarity on candidates' fiscal agendas. Investors should focus on companies with solid balance sheets and low debt, as the market tends to overreact to polling, creating opportunities for those with a long-term view.