Bolsa Família: Single-person households rise again, testing public accounts in 2026

The resumption of growth in the number of single-person beneficiaries of Bolsa Família, reaching 3.9 million in July 2026, poses a severe test to fiscal rigidity in a year marked by intense electoral disputes. This volume, although lower than the peak of 5.9 million seen in January 2023, shows an expressive expansion compared to the 3.5 million registered at the beginning of this year, signaling recurring pressures on public accounts. The management of the registry and the targeting of transfers are once again at the center of the economic debate, requiring caution in the allocation of federal resources in an environment of strong political volatility. On the macroeconomic front, the situation requires rigorous monitoring of indicators that directly impact the cost of living for lower-income families. The 12-month accumulated IPCA stands at 4.44% (July 2026 reference), presenting a recent deceleration trajectory from -4.31% in the 30-day comparison, but still keeping purchasing power under continuous pressure. Simultaneously, the exchange rate trades at R$ 5.1625 per dollar, with a modest variation of -0.03% in 7 days and -0.46% in 30 days, reflecting a high-risk premium stemming from the domestic political scenario, as pointed out by recent analyses on the emptiness of electoral debates.