US-Canada Trade War: The Cost of Value Chain Disintegration

The protectionist escalation between the United States and Canada marks a dangerous turning point for global trade, with tariffs imposed on a wide range of goods. This rupture is a supply shock pressuring fragile logistics chains, driving up transaction costs that will inevitably be passed on to the final consumer, heightening inflation risks. While the Brazilian real shows momentary resilience—with the commercial dollar at R$ 5.1625, down 0.46% over the last 30 days—North American instability threatens to drain liquidity from emerging markets. With the 12-month IPCA at 4.44%, additional pressure on import costs complicates inflation convergence. Clareza Capital notes that while sectors like services and hospitality saw R$ 840 million in investments, protectionism now acts as a structural threat. As the world shifts toward fragmentation, capital is flowing into safe-haven assets. Over the next 180 days, expect high volatility: a 30-day search for safety, a 90-day corporate balance sheet adjustment, and a 180-day potential restructuring of global supply chains. Investors should prioritize a margin of safety, focusing on low-debt assets with high pricing power and avoiding over-leveraged sectors dependent on international trade flows.