Cross-Tariffs Between US and Canada Shake Global Equities and Demand Caution

Crossing this event with Clareza Capital's editorial archive, it is noticeable that the stock market has alternated between peaks of operational optimism—as seen in the allocation strategy that ignores political noise and the excellence of premium brands—and moments of technical rigor aimed at risk mitigation and equity parity. The tradition of value and the search for a margin of safety become fundamental tools to assess whether the momentary drop in securities exposed to international trade constitutes a real discount or a value trap. Buying assets without understanding the depth of trade retaliations is equivalent to assuming a permanent loss of capital under the false promise of a cyclical bargain.

Deepening the structural analysis, asymmetric risk stems from the speed with which global market sentiment migrates from a zone of complacency to systemic panic. When governments adopt reciprocal taxation measures, the margin of error for listed companies shrinks severely, pressing operating margins and reducing cash flow visibility for the coming quarters. The Selic rate maintained at contractionary levels of 14.00% per year, with no fluctuations in the 7-day and 30-day windows, reinforces that the opportunity cost in Brazil remains high, requiring any allocation in foreign stocks or local exporters to offer a risk premium substantially higher than the domestic risk-free yield.

Looking at the 30-, 90-, and 180-day time horizons, diplomatic and economic developments will shape asset volatility with a high probability of persistence. In the short term (30 days), strong volatility is expected in securities linked to metallic commodities and logistics with exposure to NAFTA, while the foreign exchange rate may test new local lows if foreign flows seek shelter in the Brazilian market. In the medium term (90 days), the focus will shift to quarterly corporate earnings