Election campaign kicks off in Minas, Rio, and RN focusing on spending and fiscal paths

The presidential race kickoff, with itineraries concentrated in Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Norte, and Rio de Janeiro, brings the allocation of public resources back to the center of the national debate, demanding redoubled attention from economic agents regarding the direction of state expenditures. This political movement occurs at a time when the benchmark interest rate remains anchored at 14.00% per year, an unchanged level in both the 7-day variation and the 30-day horizon, imposing a high borrowing cost on the real economy. Foreign exchange dynamics add complexity to this electoral starting scenario, with the commercial exchange rate of the US dollar registering R$ 5.2043, representing a 2.23% increase over the 7-day window compared to the R$ 5.091 observed at the beginning of the period, although maintaining almost full stability against the R$ 5.201 from 30 days ago. This recent escalation of the North American currency, tied to official inflation measured by the IPCA at 4.44% over the accumulated 12 months—a value that receded from 4.64% thirty days ago but advanced subtly over the 4.23% of the previous weekly reading—demonstrates that the volatility of domestic and external prices continues to challenge the financial planning of families and companies. Crossing this scenario with the portal's editorial archive, it is noted that this is the third news item of a political or regulatory nature with direct economic repercussions to move recent news, joining debates on operational costs of new rules and institutional tensions affecting the business climate. Under the lens of credit and liquidity cycles of structural macroeconomics, the start of a leaner campaign in terms of time exposes the need to understand which stage we are in: the transition between prolonged monetary tightening and the search for stimuli via public spending, which usually generates friction between fiscal prudence and political appetite for expense expansion. For the financial and corporate market, the anticipation of campaign promises in strategic electoral strongholds such as the Southeast and Northeast raises the perception of regulatory and fiscal risk, pressing the premiums demanded by investors at the long end of the yield curve. With the IPCA fluctuating at 4.44% and the Selic rate parked at 14.00% p.a., any signaling of fiscal easing by candidates is immediately contrasted by analysts with the rigidity of the Central Bank's monetary policy, creating an environment of ambiguity for corporate investment decision-making. Looking to the short and medium-term horizon, a moderate volatility in local assets is projected for the next 30 days, driven by the tone of the first alliances and economic speeches in the three visited states. In 90 days, with the campaign at cruising speed, the focus of markets will migrate to the viability of the budget proposals presented, testing the resilience of the exchange rate in the R$ 5.20 range. Already in the 180-day horizon, the convergence or divergence between the 12-month inflation target and actual fiscal execution will define whether the cost of capital will remain restrictive or if there will be room for credit relief. Given this panorama of political uncertainty and monetary rigidity, the application of the tradition of value and margin of safety becomes indispensable for the ordinary investor: avoid allocating capital to speculative assets sensitive to regulatory upheavals and prioritize the protection of principal with post-fixed indexed assets.