Drought in the Amazon: The invisible impact of logistics on the national cost of living

The drastic reduction in Amazon river levels, driven by El Niño, has triggered a logistics crisis affecting the entire country. With navigability compromised, shipping companies have implemented emergency surcharges, raising the cost of basic consumer goods and industrial inputs. While the commercial Dollar, quoted at R$ 5.1625, has trended down by 0.46% over the last 30 days, this benefit is offset by rising internal operational costs. The 12-month IPCA, at 4.44%, reflects growing price pressure, signaling that supply shocks like this drought could threaten the market's disinflation trajectory. Investors should note that logistics efficiency is a key retail cost-reducer, and current river instability imposes a risk premium that will inevitably reach the final consumer. Over the next 90 to 180 days, persistent pressure on prices for durable goods and processed foods is expected in the North and Center-West regions.