Protectionism 2.0: The US 50% tariff on Canada and the risk to global supply chains

The imposition of a 50% US tariff on approximately $20 billion in Canadian goods marks an aggressive break in North American trade, signaling a shift from free markets to coercive negotiation. This is the fifth negative geopolitical trade event tracked by Clareza Capital this quarter, highlighting economic fragmentation that pressures global supply chains. The immediate impact is currency volatility, with the commercial dollar at R$ 5.1625, reflecting capital flight toward liquid assets. For Brazil, the scenario is cautious: despite a 12-month IPCA of 4.44%, the economy remains sensitive to commodity shocks and logistics costs. As global liquidity tightens, the shift toward 'national security' trade models acts as an invisible tax on consumption. Investors should expect increased volatility in commodity ETFs and export-heavy firms, with potential pressure on the IPCA and the Brazilian capital market as global portfolios reallocate, demanding higher risk premiums for peripheral economies despite the 14% p.a. Selic rate.