Diplomacy and Tariffs: How the Rapprochement with the US Impacts Brazil's Risk Premium

The signal of a tariff review in trade relations between Brazil and the United States challenges the export dynamics and the balance of the Brazilian trade balance. In a scenario where economic diplomacy attempts to soften protectionist barriers, the market reacts with caution, observing not only the rhetoric but the practical viability of a cost reduction for the domestic productive sector. Exchange rate stability, essential for predictability in the sector, remains under pressure, with the commercial dollar quoted at R$ 5.1625, showing a variation of -0.46% in the last 30 days, reflecting a technical adjustment in the face of external uncertainties.

The Brazilian macroeconomic context, marked by a Selic rate at 14.00% p.a., imposes a high cost of capital that makes domestic production more expensive and limits the flow of direct investments. Analyzing the trend of indicators, we note that while the Selic maintains absolute stability (0.0% variation in 7 and 30 days), the country's risk premium remains high, as observed in our recent editorial collection, which counts six consecutive negative news stories about institutional instability and operational costs. The connection between foreign policy and investor confidence is direct: without a clear signal of barrier reduction, the flow of foreign capital tends to remain contained, regardless of promises of tariff reviews.

From the perspective of credit and liquidity cycles, Brazil finds itself in a stage of prolonged monetary tightening, where global liquidity is contested by more resilient economies. The diplomatic rapprochement attempt, though positive in the long term, collides with the reality of a balance of payments that still must deal with commodity volatility. Applying the lens of cycles suggests that structural changes in trade relations do not yield immediate effects on corporate cash flow; they require a transition that may take quarters to translate into increased operating margins, keeping investors in a regime of strategic waiting.