Political crisis in Mexico and impacts on global markets and foreign exchange

The return of the governor of Sinaloa to office, following investigations and diplomatic friction with the United States involving accusations of cartel connections, places geopolitical risk back at the center of attention for international investors. This sensitive political event occurs at a time when the commercial US Dollar exchange rate (BRL/USD) is trading at 5.1625, registering a slight negative variation of 0.03% in the 7-day window (compared to the previous reference of 5.164) and a 0.46% decline in the 30-day reading (against 5.186). The momentary stability of the American currency's price contrasts with the volatility inherent to institutional shocks in Latin America, demonstrating that external risk appetite remains under constant monitoring by market agents. While the exchange rate scenario exhibits short-term resilience, the domestic Brazilian inflationary environment remains pressured by structural factors and supply pressures, with the 12-month accumulated IPCA standing at 4.44% in the recent reference of 07/01/2026. The trajectory of this index shows a contained oscillation in the 7-day trend, which marked 4.23% compared to the previous 4.26%, while in the 30-day window it recorded 4.31% compared to the 4.64% level. This inflation behavior imposes redoubled caution in the formulation of economic policies, forcing the Central Bank to keep the target Selic rate at restrictive levels of 14.00% per year, a level stably projected without expressive variations in recent weeks. This Mexican institutional instability adds to a series of unfavorable news that has been dominating recent economic and corporate reporting. By crossing this fact with the portal's editorial archives, we note the seventh consecutive incidence of news with a strong alert or negative sentiment content, echoing the tone of caution already observed in recent analyses regarding energy crises, setbacks in the oil sector, and corporate governance investigations in the national financial system. From the analytical perspective of credit and liquidity cycles, regulatory and political shocks of this magnitude in emerging economies tend to contract the global flow of venture capital, raising the premium demanded by institutional investors to finance assets in peripheral countries and tightening international liquidity. For the capital market and the real economy, the main risk lies in the cascade effect that geopolitical tensions between the Mexican and US governments can provoke on global supply chains and trade agreements within the North American bloc. With the Selic rate fixed at 14.00% p.a., the opportunity cost of capital in Brazil already operates at high levels, which means that any further deterioration in the external scenario rapidly reverberates in the rising cost of local corporate credit and in the volatility of variable income assets. The absence of conclusive evidence accepted by both parties perpetuates a climate of legal and diplomatic uncertainty, hindering long-term investment planning by multinationals present in the region. Looking at the 30, 90, and 180-day horizon, analysts project that exchange rate volatility should test new bands should economic sanctions or more severe diplomatic developments arise from Washington. In the very short term (30 days), the dollar is expected to fluctuate around the average of 5.16 reais, heavily guided by investor portfolio adjustments.