Flávio Bolsonaro's new economic team challenges exchange rates and fiscal risk

Crossing this scenario with Clareza Capital portal's recent editorial collection, it is noted that this is the fourth news piece with a negative or cautious bias in the past week, adding to blocked records that impact exchange rates and electoral uncertainty in various states. From the perspective of the credit and liquidity cycle school, the transition between governments and promises of changes in the economic matrix instantly alter risk appetite, increasing the premium demanded by creditors to finance sovereign debt. When the political scenario demonstrates fragilities or regulatory uncertainties, institutional capital tends to retract its long-term exposure, seeking refuge in liquid assets and increasing the overall volatility of the real economy.

Structuring an economic plan with experienced names theoretically seeks to signal fiscal predictability, but runs up against chronic distrust regarding the execution capacity of campaign promises. With the 12-month accumulated IPCA at 4.44%—presenting a short-term variation compared to the previous level of 4.23% and a drop from 4.64% thirty days ago—the population's purchasing power remains pressured by logistical costs and seasonal pressures. Any deviation in the fiscal route signaled by new economic policymakers has the immediate potential to reverse the inflation trajectory, making inputs more expensive and reducing the profit margins of listed or privately held companies.

For the next 30 days, expectations fall on the new team's ability to detail credible fiscal adjustment proposals, with a high probability of volatility if the economic discourse lacks concrete numbers. On the 90-day horizon, the market should intensify the pricing of candidates' electoral chances, with a medium probability of sharp fluctuations in the dollar and future interest rate contracts if new polls alter the balance of forces. In 180 days, as the election approaches, the focus will shift i