Lula and Trump Negotiate Tariffs: Impact on Foreign Exchange and the Economy

The main cause for concern for analysts and industrialists lies in the risk of trade route diversions and the loss of profit margins for exporting sectors highly dependent on the North American market. With the 12-month accumulated IPCA at 4.44% — presenting a variation of 4.23% compared to the level seven days prior and a drop of 4.31% in the 30-day comparison —, domestic inflation remains at controlled levels, but any supply shock resulting from customs barriers can pressure imported input costs and make the local production chain more expensive.

For the 30-day horizon, moderate volatility is projected in the shares of exporting companies listed on the B3, while the 90-day scenario will depend on the progress or retreat of bilateral diplomatic missions to avoid the escalation of rates. As for the 180-day horizon, the foreign exchange market may test new floors if trade agreements advance toward a peaceful resolution, or suffer upward pressures if North American protectionism consolidates as a permanent policy of restriction on Brazilian Commodities.

For the average investor and head of household, the practical recommendation is to maintain serenity, avoiding hasty allocation movements into risky currency assets and focusing on portfolio diversification. Applying the tradition of value and margin of safety, the moment calls for focusing on solid companies with strong cash generation and low indebtedness, capable of absorbing eventual external shocks without compromising long-term wealth, protecting capital against abrupt oscillations in the international scenario.