Resumption of visits to Bolsonaro and the institutional risk premium

The defense of former President Jair Bolsonaro formalized with the Federal Supreme Court the immediate resumption of general visit scheduling following the end of the thirty-day period determined by Justice Alexandre de Moraes. This development raises political tensions as the exchange rate trades at R$ 5.19, showing a 1.13% gain over a 7-day window and a 0.29% positive variation over 30 days. This legal friction compounds recent debates on electoral transparency and investigations into leaks, elevating the institutional risk premium and marking the sixth consecutive negative note in the economic policy section. From a macroeconomic standpoint, the commercial dollar reflects foreign capital's sensitivity to domestic noise, while the Selic rate held at 14.00% per year demonstrates monetary policy rigidity. IPCA inflation stands at 4.44% over twelve months. This convergence of interest rate rigidity and institutional clashes demands a refined reading of corporate governance and country risk from the capital markets. Fundamental causes of asset nervousness stem from challenging fiscal conditions and early polarization, measurable through exchange rate behavior and double-digit interest rates. Over the next 30 to 90 days, the market is expected to price in ongoing volatility driven by court movements and economic agenda hurdles in Congress.