Governance Risk: The impact of revelations on the market and the perception of risk premium

Recent disclosures involving figures close to power and lobbyists have cast a new light on the cost of political risk in Brazil, a factor often underestimated by investors during periods of apparent calm. When information flows suggest the existence of informal negotiation channels, the market reacts with immediate asset repricing. The risk premium, which already reflects structural caution, tends to expand when corporate governance and public transparency are questioned, directly impacting foreign capital attractiveness. The exchange rate serves as a sensitive thermometer: the commercial dollar, at R$ 5.1862, shows a 1.13% gain over the last 7 days, reflecting political pressure. With annual inflation at 4.44%, this currency devaluation acts as an invisible tax. As institutional investors increase protection, the risk of decision-making paralysis threatens structural reforms. With the Selic rate at 14% per year, long-term allocation remains challenging, and the outlook for the next 180 days suggests that the Central Bank may be forced to keep interest rates elevated for longer than initially expected.