National AI Plan: The challenge of digital sovereignty in a volatile dollar scenario

The launch of Brazil's Artificial Intelligence Plan marks a government effort to reduce technological dependence on critical infrastructure, focusing on supercomputers and sovereign clouds. With the commercial dollar reaching R$ 5.1862 and a 1.13% appreciation over the last 7 days, the push to internalize data processing faces high hardware import costs, which are largely dollar-denominated. A partnership strategy with China signals a search for alternatives in a concentrated semiconductor market, yet raises questions about public resource allocation efficiency. With the Selic rate at 14% p.a. and an IPCA of 4.44% over 12 months, the state's ability to compete with global cloud giants remains uncertain. Investors should exercise caution, applying a margin of safety when evaluating companies reliant on these state subsidies, as the project risks creating 'silicon white elephants' if it fails to attract private sector efficiency.