Delinquency on the Rise: Banks Signal Deterioration in Q3, Even with Desenrola

Our editorial archive has recorded a predominantly negative sentiment in recent weeks, with five adverse news items, including warnings about the insurance sector (HAPV3), the technology market, and instability in state privatizations. The current projection of worsening delinquency aligns with this trend, reinforcing the idea of a challenging business environment. The asymmetric risk school, which warns us about the pricing of optimism or pessimism in the market, suggests that while delinquency is a real risk, the degree of deterioration may already be priced in by banks. The central question is to understand whether this pricing is sufficient to mitigate future losses or if the market still underestimates the extent of the problem.

In-depth analysis indicates that the persistence of delinquency, even with renegotiation programs, is linked to persistent macroeconomic factors. The Selic rate at 14.00% per year, although stable in recent weeks (0.0% variation 7d/30d), represents a high opportunity cost for consumption and investment, in addition to making credit more expensive. The direct consequence is the increasing difficulty in honoring financial commitments. The dollar at R$ 5.19, with an upward trend over 7 days, could exacerbate this situation by making imported inputs and goods more expensive, further pressuring company margins and family budgets.

Looking ahead to the next 30 days, the probability of stabilization in delinquency, albeit at high levels, is medium, given the inertia of the credit cycle. In 90 days, the expectation of a slight improvement, with delinquency receding to levels of 4.20% (considering a linear IPCA projection of -4.31% in 30d), is low, depending on fiscal developments and monetary policy. For 180 days, a more optimistic scenario, with delinquency rates below 4.00%.