Treasuries on alert and European stock markets retreat amid oil price hikes

European stock markets closed mixed, pressured by rising oil prices and stress in global sovereign debt markets, highlighting that international inflation continues to dictate the pace of risk assets. While the pan-European Stoxx 600 index slipped marginally by 0.04% to close at 650.89 points, the Frankfurt Stock Exchange plummeted 0.42% to 25,983.04 points, reflecting the weight of 15-year record financing costs for Germany. This external dynamic directly echoes in an environment where the commercial dollar trades at R$ 5.1862, accumulating a 1.13% gain over a seven-day horizon and maintaining pressure on emerging assets. International volatility gains traction amid logistical and geopolitical tightening, reminding traders of the fragility of global supply chains. This scenario of external instability directly intersects with the domestic macroeconomic outlook, marking the sixth consecutive negative news piece in the economics editorial, aligned with recent alerts on Treasuries and 30-year interest rates forcing global caution. To grasp the magnitude of this pressure, it is essential to observe the 12-month accumulated IPCA, which stands at 4.44% with a monthly fluctuation of -4.31%, while the Selic rate remains parked at 14.00% per year, unchanged over seven and thirty days. From the perspective of credit and liquidity cycles, we frame the current moment in a phase of structural transition where pandemic liquidity excess gives way to rigorous global monetary tightening, raising the cost of capital for companies and governments worldwide. Deepening the conjunctural analysis, a more than 2% rise in Brent futures contracts boosted the Stoxx 600 energy sector by 0.43%, while travel and leisure companies fell 0.77% due to the immediate surge in jet fuel costs. The United States Department of the Treasury attempted to stem the bleeding in the long-term bond market by announcing a bond buyback plan, a strategy that, however, failed to prevent Treasury yields from hitting highs not seen since 2007. This synchronized movement of fiscal and monetary tightening forces corporate treasuries to reassess their balance sheets and Capex investment plans, systemically reducing global risk appetite and impacting foreign capital flows directed to Brazil. Considering the 30-day horizon, heightened volatility is projected in international stock markets and the dollar is expected to fluctuate within its current range, as markets digest geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the stance of central banks. In the medium term, over 90 days, the behavior of US long-term interest rates will continue to determine the outflow of foreign capital from the Brazilian stock exchange, pressing the exchange rate to elevated levels. Over the 180-day horizon, a gradual accommodation of agricultural and energy commodity prices is expected, provided additional supply shocks are avoided, allowing developed economies to begin discussing more assertive cuts in their benchmark interest rates. For the Brazilian investor, the moment demands extreme caution in resource allocation, recommending avoiding excessive exposure to highly leveraged global assets and prioritizing capital protection with instruments linked thereto.