Rising Treasuries following Bessent's remarks pressure exchange rates and markets

This episode marks the sixth consecutive piece with a predominantly negative tone in our editorial archive this week, aligning with recent analyses on the tightening of real assets and the restructuring of regulated markets, such as the recent Abecs reform isolating paytechs. From the perspective of Ray Dalio's macro-structuring and liquidity cycles school, the current movement perfectly illustrates the contraction phase of risk appetite, where the expansion of sovereign public debt supply drains global liquidity and forces portfolio reassessment on a planetary scale, penalizing local equity markets and making corporate financing more expensive.

The sudden rise in US long-term rates and the immediate pass-through to the domestic yield curve demonstrate the high vulnerability of emerging markets to North American bond supply shocks. With the Ibovespa contained in a moderate 0.46% rise at 168,577 points and New York indices like the S&P 500 falling 0.44% to 7,674 points, it is evident that international capital is seeking refuge amid prospects of higher-for-longer interest rates abroad. For the Brazilian investor, the spot dollar at R$ 5.1882 and the DXY index stable at 98.83 points reveal that the exchange rate remains pressured not by isolated weakness of the real, but by the global strength of the US currency fueled by debt restructuring.

Over the next 30 days, expectations rest on the US Treasury's ability to absorb supplemental bond issuance without further destabilizing long curves, which will keep the dollar fluctuating in the current range of R$ 5.17 to R$ 5.25. In the 90-day horizon, should global inflation continue to show resilience, DI rates are projected to consolidate above 14.20% in Brazil, limiting expressive gains in variable income and maintaining the Ibovespa capped.