PE 2026 Elections: Quaest measures impact of alignments and economic reflexes

This panorama of political-electoral instability and cost pressure adds to our recent editorial collection, which already accumulates an expressive set of analyses with a predominantly negative sentiment, reflecting an environment of caution in the face of restricted corporate mergers and global geopolitical tensions, such as the surge in oil to US$ 95. Through the lens of credit and liquidity cycles, it is perceived that state governments find themselves in a stage of transition and financial tightening, where risk appetite decreases drastically and the allocation of public resources begins to require greater technical rigor, avoiding capital waste at a time of structural monetary contraction.

Analyzing the causes of this fierce dispute in Pernambuco, it is observed that presidential endorsement—with Lula registering 55% of voting intentions in the state against 21% for Flávio Bolsonaro—acts as a catalyst for transfers of political capital and alignment of discretionary funds for the state budget. However, fiscal risk remains latent: should campaign promises exceed the capacity for budget execution under the ceiling of high interest rates, the sustainability of regional public debt could suffer deterioration, raising the risk premium demanded by investors who acquire state public bonds or infrastructure papers.

For the 30-day horizon, accentuated volatility is projected in local assets with the continuous release of new electoral polls and developments regarding the formation of party alliances; in 90 days, the focus will shift to the candidates' ability to present viable fiscal proposals in the face of 4.44% inflation; and, in 180 days, the market will begin to price in advance the economic impacts of administrative guidelines.