Campaign instability: the electoral risk the market is starting to price in

Frequent changes in the marketing leadership of 2026 electoral campaigns, involving figures like Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado, and Augusto Cury, signal narrative fragility that goes beyond politics, impacting capital market confidence. Institutional investors, monitoring political volatility as a sovereign risk factor, fear that poor communication cohesion may anticipate legislative noise, hindering long-term stability. With the commercial dollar trading at R$ 5.20, up 2.23% in the last 7 days, any sign of electoral disorganization increases the risk premium, complicating foreign capital attraction. While value-oriented investors should look past temporary noise to intrinsic asset values, current macroeconomic indicators—such as the 12-month IPCA at 4.44%—limit the next government's room for maneuver. With the dollar showing a 0.06% variation over 30 days, the market remains in a wait-and-see mode, where further political instability could trigger capital flight. As the market prices in skepticism, failure to stabilize campaign messaging before the August 28th free airtime could negatively skew the risk-return asymmetry. Over the next 180 days, focus will shift from rhetoric to fiscal viability, with the Selic rate at 14.00% dictating investment momentum.