Electoral Calendar and Fiscal Risk: What the market is watching beyond the polls

The series of electoral polls across eight Brazilian states this Thursday serves as a short-term thermometer for risk appetite, at a time when institutional predictability has become the scarcest asset in the national economy. While capital markets process the noise of voting intentions, the reality of macroeconomic fundamentals, marked by a commercial dollar quoted at R$ 5.1714, imposes clear limits on investor optimism. Investors are focusing not only on regional leaders but on how these results signal the continuity or disruption of local fiscal policies affecting private capital attractiveness. With the dollar up 1.47% over the last 7 days and 12-month IPCA at 4.44%, the market remains cautious. Amid restricted liquidity, the focus shifts toward real assets, as political volatility directly impacts public bond risk premiums and credit costs. The outlook for the next 180 days suggests that risk premiums will remain elevated until the fiscal viability of winning proposals is proven, favoring capital protection over speculation.