Fed Signals Interest Rate Hikes, Shocking Global Markets

The US central bank's recent stance, allowing for further monetary tightening due to persistent inflation, imposes an immediate reality check on international markets and redefines capital allocation globally. At the current benchmark rate of 3.5% to 3.75% per year in the United States, the monetary authority demonstrates that the battle against rising prices is far from over, surprising agents who were betting on an imminent easing of financial conditions.

This scenario of external rigidity gains traction as the Brazilian commercial dollar hovers around R$ 5.1714, up 1.47% over seven days, though showing a slight 0.63% retraction over 30 days when quoted at R$ 5.204. In parallel, Brazil's 12-month accumulated IPCA inflation stands at 4.44%, remaining within the tolerance band but sensitive to any exchange rate pass-through generated by capital flight towards US Treasury bonds.

This external movement corroborates the cautious atmosphere already dominating this portal's editorial content, marking the fourth consecutive negative outlook this week, following shocks in sectors ranging from instability in private refineries to global technological restrictions. From a structural macroeconomic perspective, we understand that we are in a transition phase from a cycle of ample liquidity to an environment of credit scarcity, where the cost of money remains high for longer to force the decompression of aggregate demand.